Global 22/23 wheat ending stocks to grow despite lower Ukraine figure

Wheat stocks worldwide in the 2022/23 marketing year are expected to be nearly 1 million tons higher than previously thought thanks to higher stocks level in China and Australia, according to the USDA.

The global ending stocks for wheat will hit 269.3 million tons in this marketing year, up 0.9 million tons from the previous projection. But it remains 7 million tons lower compared to the 2021/22 marketing year.

“Increases for Australia and China more than offsetting a reduction for Ukraine. However, ending stocks remain the lowest since 2016/17,” said the USDA in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report.

USDA raised its view on China’s wheat imports in the 2022/23 marketing year by half a million tons to 10 million tons. As domestic wheat production and demand estimates remained unchanged at 137.72 million tons and 144 million tons respectively, the ending stocks level is estimated to grow by 0.5 million tons by the end of the marketing year.

Ending stocks in Australia are forecasted at 5.13 million tons, up 0.88 million tons from the previous estimate.

Higher stocks in these two countries more than offset the impact of the lower ending stocks level in Ukraine which is expected at 4.21 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from the projection last month.