Wheat prices continue to slide on large crop expectations

Wheat prices continue to fall with average prices in Hubei returning to October 2022 levels. Prices in the main producing province of Henan are also down between 50-100 yuan per ton over the past month.

The market has continued to turn bearish as weather risks for the winter wheat crop diminish and crop conditions are good.

Smaller provincial wheat auctions in Hubei over the past week saw relatively limited participation, with only 10.5% of supplies being purchased by the market. Flour millers are also being more cautious in their purchases which is weakening demand and contributing to the price slide.

There is some market speculation about new crop wheat possibly pricing into feed rations, but the general expectation is that this will be limited to small regions during the peak of harvest pressure and won’t be a significant market factor.

Corn in Henan province is still around 280 yuan per ton cheaper than wheat. This large price spread is unlikely to narrow so substantially as to lead to widespread wheat feeding.