Category: Analysis

Summary Corn prices fell in September as the harvest nears. Challenges from weather in the northeast should be more than offset by an increase in planted area, with local government subsidy data from Heilongjiang showing a strong increase in corn planting at the expense of soybeans. Weather risks remain over the next 10 days in… Continue reading Corn Update – 2029-09-21

The National Meteorological Center issued a risk warning for continuous rainy weather for large areas of central China from September 21 through September 28. The center notes that frequently rainfall is expected, creating a high risk for the grain harvest. From September 23-27, a band of rainfall covering parts of Chongqing, Shaanxi, Hubei, Henan, and… Continue reading Weather risks warns of rains in central China during harvest

Feed production in August was 31.24 million tons, up 4.5% compared to July, and up 3.2% year on year. There continues to be a split between compound feed and concentrated and additive premixes. Compound feed output was 29.4 million tons, up 4.3% compared to July, and up 3.7% year on year. Concentrated feed production was… Continue reading Feed production rises in August, corn use in feed falls

August railway passenger volumes were 521 million, up 3.1% year on year. January through August were 3.3 billion passengers, up 3.9% year on year. Passenger-kilometers was up by 1.2% year on year, indicating the growth is from shorter trips.   The National Railway Administration noted that during the summer travel season from July 1 through… Continue reading Rail passenger volumes up in August, but freight falls

More local governments in Heilongjiang are reporting subsidy data showing a switch from soybeans to corn. Beilin District in Suihua Prefecture reports subsidized corn at 115.5k hectares, up 8.4% year on year. Subsidized soybean area was 5.6k hectares, down 60.3% year on year. This data is interesting because it provides farmer-level subsidy data across two… Continue reading Soy down, corn up, and rice steady in Heilongjiang district

Proteins Meat imports in August were 450k tons and continued to slow compared to July and year on year. Beef imports fell 4.5% compared to July and 18.9% year on year. YTD imports are still up 8.0% on front-loading of shipments due to the 2026 import quotas. Pork imports are also continuing at a low… Continue reading Protein weakness, grain strength continues in August import data

A farmer in Heilongjiang received a higher government payment for planting soybeans this year. His 19-foot by 19-foot field of soybeans earned him a subsidy payment of 19.42 yuan, or $2.90 USD, according to newly released subsidy data from Sunwu County in Heihe Prefecture. Despite the higher payments this year, farmers switched more planting to… Continue reading What subsidy data tells us about corn and soybean planting before the official data