2022/23 new crop US soybeans demand spike as Brazil crop damage fear mounts

The trading of unplanted 2022/23 new crop US soybeans spiked this week as international trading houses and Chinese importers demand jumped amid rising concerns of lower-than-expected 2021/22 Brazilian soybean output due to draught weather.

About ten cargoes of new crop US soybeans were said to have changed hands on both FOB and CFR China basis this week so far, according to several trade sources.

One FOB October 2022 shipment traded at 114 c/bu over November 2022 CBOT futures in US Gulf, and another October shipment changed hands at 190 c/bu over the same futures in the Pacific Northwest.

Some of these trades are expected to be contracted by Chinese importers.

Buying interest for US new crops rose sharply this week amid swirling concerns of Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean output to be significantly lower than previously expected.

Analysts have slashed their estimates of the harvest from more than 140 million tons to 132-134 million tons.

Key soybean growing areas in Brazil suffered above-normal dry and hot weather in mid-December last year followed by strong rainfalls last week that has delay harvest progress.

Analysts were expecting the South American country to deliver a record volume of soybeans this year thanks to smooth planting in the fourth quarter of 2021.