Author: Darin Friedrichs
Spread update; futures recap
Spread Update Despite the strong rally in corn, the carry in May/Sept corn has remained relatively steady around -25 yuan per ton. The Sept/Jan spread has seen some strength recently as gains in the September contract have outpaced gains in the January 2026 contract. However, the January 2026 contract is also making new yearly highs.… Continue reading Spread update; futures recap
Hog producers move to losses in Q1
Muyuan reported Q1 revenue of 29.9 billion yuan, down 17.1% year on year. The company reported a loss of 1.2 billion yuan, down from a profit of 4.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025. Despite the falling hog prices last year, the company reported a profit of 515 million yuan in Q4. The company noted that… Continue reading Hog producers move to losses in Q1
Government detains internet user posting wheat silage video
In a recent rumor-debunking article, state media notes the case of viral videos claiming that wheat was being harvested early for silage. It notes that these are videos from 2022, and that an internet user from Henan uploaded these videos with claims that farmers were earning 1500-2000 yuan per mu (1/15 hectare). Based on this,… Continue reading Government detains internet user posting wheat silage video
Wheat auctions continue to see strong result
On Wednesday, 801k tons of minimum purchase price wheat was auctioned, with 679k tons, or 84.8%, being purchased by the market. The average price was 2387 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan per ton compared to last week. Since the resumption of the wheat auctions, 6.8 million tons have been listed, with 5.7 million tons… Continue reading Wheat auctions continue to see strong result
Futures Recap
Urea futures were up sharply on the day, driven by rumors that the government would issue more export quotas than expected. There hasn’t been any official announcement, and it seems unlikely that China would want to export more given the government’s focus on food security and the global volatility. But these rumors caused urea prices… Continue reading Futures Recap
Auction results see low interest in rice, increase corn rotations
National auctions of minimum purchase price reserve rice saw 601k tons listed with 59k tons purchased by the market. The average price was 2367 yuan per ton. Last week, Sinograin had 8 corn sales auctions, offering 71.9k tons with 36.9k tons being purchased. There were 22 rounds of purchase with Sinograin looking to buy 566k… Continue reading Auction results see low interest in rice, increase corn rotations
Soybean shipments to China
Soybean shipments from Brazil to China grew slightly last week to 3.04 million tons. Shipments continue at a slow pace from the US. Since the start of the year, Brazil’s soybean exports to China are up 2.5% year on year. In the lineup data, Argentina has now shipped 2 vessels of corn to China, totaling… Continue reading Soybean shipments to China
Argentina largest wheat supplier to China in March as trade starts
Barley imports continued to be strong in March with nearly all of this volume coming from Australia. Compared to Q1 2025, Australia has an even larger market share of barley imports at 82%. The pace of imports has also been strong to start this year, with a total of 3.5 million tons imported, one of… Continue reading Argentina largest wheat supplier to China in March as trade starts
Customs; protein prices; futures recap
March customs data show increase in wheat and barley imports Beef imports were 240k tons, down slightly from February, but YTD imports are higher as companies have increased the pace of exports following China’s introduction of yearly quotas to limit beef imports. Pork imports continue to be slower due to domestic oversupply, with YTD imports… Continue reading Customs; protein prices; futures recap