Category: Commentary

Chinese internet access While doing some research into Jiangsu State Farms Development Co. I came across an odd situation. The company has a website, but when accessing it from Ireland, it gives a message “This Url been denyed!” Accessing it from a Chinese IP, there isn’t a website. It’s increasingly common for provinces or government… Continue reading Futures Recap

State Council agriculture press conference mostly uneventful On Thursday, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to discuss agriculture and the rural economy in the first quarter of 2026. The press conference mostly focused on rural development issues such as land contracts and poverty elimination efforts but did provide some interesting pieces of… Continue reading Press conference; futures recap

Spread Update Despite the strong rally in corn, the carry in May/Sept corn has remained relatively steady around -25 yuan per ton. The Sept/Jan spread has seen some strength recently as gains in the September contract have outpaced gains in the January 2026 contract. However, the January 2026 contract is also making new yearly highs.… Continue reading Spread update; futures recap

Urea futures were up sharply on the day, driven by rumors that the government would issue more export quotas than expected. There hasn’t been any official announcement, and it seems unlikely that China would want to export more given the government’s focus on food security and the global volatility. But these rumors caused urea prices… Continue reading Futures Recap

March customs data show increase in wheat and barley imports Beef imports were 240k tons, down slightly from February, but YTD imports are higher as companies have increased the pace of exports following China’s introduction of yearly quotas to limit beef imports. Pork imports continue to be slower due to domestic oversupply, with YTD imports… Continue reading Customs; protein prices; futures recap

Thoughts on food security and Chinese statistics I try to give clients an understanding of what is happening in Chinese agriculture, what policy changes are happening, and a sense of when official statistics might not be accurate. In the case of late rains in northern China last year, there was a very clear divergence between… Continue reading Statistics; futures recap

Agricultural markets were relatively quiet on Thursday. Hog futures continued to move sharply higher. The May contract wasn’t able to trade below 9000 yuan per ton, and the July contract had previous support at 10,000 yuan per ton. The move doesn’t seem to be in response to any change, but rather due to hog futures… Continue reading Futures Recap

The front-month live hog contract rolled to July delivery and was up sharply on Wednesday….   Subscriber content: Sitonia Consulting provides market intelligence on Chinese agricultural markets. For a free trial, please visit here or email info@sitoniaconsulting.com   Please login to view this page.

National minimum price auction sees prices fall National auctions of minimum purchase price rise saw relatively weak results again this week. 600k tons of rice were listed, with 51k tons purchased, or a transaction rate of 8.5%. The average price fell 20 yuan per ton compared to last week, with an average price of 2610… Continue reading Rice auctions; futures recap

Spring planting 10% complete, matching last year’s pace As of April 7, nearly 10% of spring-planted crops had been sown, matching the pace for last year. This closely matches last year when 11.7% of the crop had been planted by April 11. Early rice is 30% sown. As the season progresses, the Ministry of Agriculture… Continue reading Spring planting; corn auctions; soybean shipments; futures recap