Sinograin auctioned 512.5k tons of imported soybeans today with 397k tons, or 77.5%, being purchased by the market.
The average selling price was 3935 yuan per ton, with the auctioned soybeans being from 2022 and 2023.
As noted in yesterday’s spread update, the Jan/May soybean meal spread was already seeing some strength and is now at +315.
The market seems surprised at the strength of the auction results given that soybean and meal stocks are relatively high.
Part of this could be related to the uncertainty around US soybean imports. While China is actively buying soybeans, with another 264k tons to China reported by the USDA today, there is more uncertainty about the timing, given Bessent’s comments last week. Bessent said the Chinese purchase pace in matching expectations, but that the purchases for 2025 would be done by the end of February.
There also seems to be speculation in the market that customs might delay clearance again.
This has been less of a problem in recent months. Looking at soybean shipments from Brazil based on their shipment date, and adding 65 days, these match up very closely to what Chinese customs has reported as imports from Brazil. For 2025, the r-squared is 0.98, and from January through October, the difference between Brazilian shipments and Chinese imports from Brazil vary by only 1.2%.
