China’s breeding sow herd was 39.61 million head at the end of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This is down 2.9% year on year and is 101.6% of the normal inventory level.
The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Bureau of Statistics did not release a monthly sow inventory number in November, which added uncertainty to the market because this number was previously released monthly.
The most recent update before this was that October’s sow herd was at 39.90 million.
The National Bureau of Statistics said that 39.61 million head was 101.6% of the normal inventory level, which puts the normal inventory level at 39 million heads. This also adds uncertainty about what inventory level the government is targeting.
Under the policy “Implementation Plan for Hog Production Capacity Regulation (Revised in 2024)”, the breeding sow herd should be at 39 million head for the market to be balanced.
This policy revised a similar 2021 policy which targeted the sow population at 41 million. The 2024 policy also said that anything from 92% to 105% of the new target population of 39 million head was “normal market fluctuations” that did not need a policy response.
However, in June 2025, the NDRC had meetings with hog companies about reducing sow inventories. At that time, the sow inventory was 40.43 million, and the the government wanted the herd reduced by about 1 million with a target of 39.5 million.
The more important meetings on September 16 also focused on reducing the herd by 1 million head, rather than targeting the figure of 39 million.
While the official policy guidance is a target of 39 million head, and the previous population of 40.43 million was well within the ‘green zone’ of normal market fluctuations, the market view is that NDRC is still targeting a population of 39.5 million.
Hog weights were also a topic in the September 16 meetings, with a target of limiting hog weights to 120kg and stopping the practice of secondary-fattening. Some large public companies have announced that they will only sell hogs to designated slaughtering facilities to prevent hog being further fattened in the secondary market.
However, the 2025 hog slaughter was up by 2.4% compared to pork production rising by 4.1%, which would indicate higher hog weights in 2025.
The cattle herd shrunk by 4.4% while slaughter was up by 0.7%, and beef production was up by 2.8%.
In 2024, the cattle herd also shrank by 4.4% while slaughter was up by 1.5% and beef production was up by 3.5%.
Part of the reason that China has put import quotas on beef is because of the concern about the shrinking cattle herd.
Given the much longer cycle in beef production compared to hog or poultry production, a large decline in China’s beef herd can’t be quickly reversed. The large decline in beef prices in recent years, along with an increase in imports, has made farmers less likely to continue raising cattle, and the import quotas are an attempt to stabilize the market.
Since the end of 2023, China’s cattle herd has fallen 9.3%.
China’s beef industry faces structural issues such as land constraints and high feed prices that mean the industry is less competitive than its counterparts in the US, Brazil, or Australia. But for now, the government hopes to resolve that by limiting imports.
