Temperatures in Xinjiang have been well above average the entire summer. Over the past 10 days, temperatures have continued to be 4-6°C (7.2-10.8°F) above average, with some areas seeing temperatures over 6°C (10.8°F) above average.
While the northeast is the largest corn-producing region, followed by northern China, Xinjiang has become an increasingly important corn producer in recent years. Xinjiang also accounts for 93% of China’s cotton production.
Corn production last year was 16.4 million tons, up 8.5% year on year.
The area has become increasingly important for China’s overall corn production, and a recent paper, Cost-benefit analysis of maize planting in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2024, studies the changes.
The region has relatively high yields compared to the national average and other areas in the region. This paper uses data from the National Development and Reform Commission (National Compilation of Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data), rather than data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Corn yields in Xinjiang are 10.1 tons per hectare, but NDRC data tends to track larger producers, and the yields in that dataset are higher at 832kg/mu (12.5 tons per hectare). For either dataset, the yields are higher than the national average.
Xinjiang is a remote area in China, far from major demand centers, and prices are typically at a discount compared to other regions or the national average. In 2024, prices were at an average discount of 15.3% compared to the national average.
The authors note that the region is weak in terms of local corn processing and livestock demand. This requires most of the corn produced to be sold outside of the region, and given the long distances, the transportation costs are high.
They also note that small farmers in the region lack the resources to dry and store corn to wait for better prices and instead they typically sell the corn to drying plants at harvest.
Planting costs in the region are higher than the national average at 23.1k yuan per hectare and rose by 222.4% from 2006 to 2024 and were 17.0% higher than the national average in 2024.
An interesting divergence here is that labor costs are relatively low compared to the national average and fell in 2024. Land costs have increased dramatically, far outpacing the increase in national average land costs.
The authors note “disorder” in land costs, with large farmers bidding up land to chase higher returns. Profits for farmers in the region were very high from 2020 through 2023 but fell sharply in 2024.
In terms of other costs, irrigation is a relatively high cost at 1,659 yuan per hectare, compared to a national average of 326 yuan per hectare, due to the drier and hotter climate in the region.
Lastly, looking at land use in the region, cropland is relatively small compared to barren or desert areas. Based on satellite data from 2024, 67% is classified as barren land, followed by 23% as grassland, and 5.5% as cropland.
