Wednesday continued to see a divergence in soybean meal and hogs. Soybean meal hit new yearly highs and reached the highest level since 2024. Hog futures continued to fall, with the November contract falling to new contract lows.
Author: Darin Friedrichs
Cattle farmers report a return to profitability after long period of losses
The rise in cattle and beef prices was the subject of a recent news report on CCTV Finance. Vendors at Beijing’s Xinfadi wholesale market note a trend of both rising prices and rising demand. Prices of beef shank at the market are up 7.0% over the past month, and up 18.8% year on year. One… Continue reading Cattle farmers report a return to profitability after long period of losses
Arrival of new crop corn pressures wheat prices with 2 weeks remaining of government support
Wheat prices were slightly lower in Hubei province last week, but Henan and Anhui have been announcing dozens of new warehouses that will purchase wheat at the government’s minimum reserve price over the past two weeks. Henan reports purchases of 883k tons at the minimum price, compared to 7.4 million tons at this time last… Continue reading Arrival of new crop corn pressures wheat prices with 2 weeks remaining of government support
Futures Recap
Wednesday continued to see a divergence in soybean meal and hogs. Soybean meal hit new yearly highs and reached the highest level since 2024. Hog futures continued to fall, with the November contract falling to new contract lows.
Corn processors face margin squeeze as starch prices fall
The decline in corn starch futures has outpaced the decline in corn futures. The premium of starch futures to corn is now below 250 yuan per ton. Corn starch inventories are 1.36 million tons, up 10.8% year on year. Downstream demand is weak, with starch being used in food, beverages, and paper manufacturing. Industrial corn… Continue reading Corn processors face margin squeeze as starch prices fall
Spread update: Corn spreads at wide carry into harvest; meal inverse strengthens
As harvest approaches, the Dalian corn curve remains in a large carry. Last year at this time, there was a slight inverse between November and January. January/May 2027 is trading at a carry of 84 yuan per ton, the lowest seasonally since 2019. Domestic soybeans are also trading at a relatively wide carry despite the… Continue reading Spread update: Corn spreads at wide carry into harvest; meal inverse strengthens
Futures Recap
Brazil soybean shipments fall, US shipments to China return
Brazilian soybean shipments to China fell to 1.3 million tons last week. In 2026, shipments are 71.3 million tons, up 2.7% year on year, based on lineup data. Shipments from the US Gulf resumed, with 328k tons shipped to China. Prior to this, the last soybean shipment from the Gulf to China was July 31.… Continue reading Brazil soybean shipments fall, US shipments to China return
Retail spending slows in August, restaurant spending mixed on consumer shifts
Retail sales grew by just 0.4% year on year in August, down from growth of 0.6% in July, and below analyst estimates of 0.8% growth. The National Bureau of Statistics reports that from January through August, spending on retail goods and services is up 2.5%, with spending on services rising 4.9% year on year, while… Continue reading Retail spending slows in August, restaurant spending mixed on consumer shifts
Heilongjiang soybean subsidies increase to $868 USD/ha
Initial data from Heilongjiang indicates the province has increased soybean planting subsidies for 2026. Heilongjiang has a province-wide planting subsidy compared to other provinces that decide it by region. Xinlin district in Heilongjiang published its subsidy payments to farms, showing a planting subsidy of 388.34 yuan per mu (5825 yuan per hectare or $868 USD/ha… Continue reading Heilongjiang soybean subsidies increase to $868 USD/ha