Category: Commentary

Ministry of Commerce mentions progress on agriculture, but not specific purchases The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference addressing questions related to the recent US-China meetings. They said that agricultural products can fill structural supply and demand gaps in the Chinese market, that the Chinese market provides a large opportunity to US farmers, and… Continue reading MOFCOM comments; protein prices; futures prices

Brazil soy shipments to China tracking last year’s pace Brazilian soybean shipments to China increased last week to 2.9 million tons. Exports from Argentina have also increased, with 326k tons. US shipments were relatively small with no exports out of the US Gulf. Based on lineup data from Brazil, there have been 36.5 million tons… Continue reading Soy shipments; rice auctions; futures recap

Consumer spending growth at multi-year low in April Consumer spending rose just 0.2% in April, the lowest growth since December 2022. December 2022 was when China lifted its zero-Covid policies, so this is the weakest growth post-Covid for Chinese consumer spending. This is below forecasts for growth of around 2.0% and is down from growth… Continue reading Weak consumer spending; weather risks; futures recap

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Sinograin reports corn large purchases in shortened week From May 6-9 (shortened week due to the May Day holiday), Sinograin had 8 auctions for corn, listing 78.9k tons. Only 15.4k tons were purchased. There were 14 rounds of purchases with a volume of 518k tons, and Sinograin purchased 506k tons, or 97.7%. Rotation auctions were… Continue reading Corn auctions; futures recap

Spring planting over half complete Planting of spring crops is over 50% complete as of May 11, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. This is slightly faster than last year’s pace. Planting completion by crop is 70% for corn, 20% for soybeans, and 20% for mid-season rice. Wheat prices flat as early harvest starts Wheat… Continue reading Planting progress; wheat harvest; futures recap

Grain purchases of autumn harvest 338 million tons, down 2% y/y Grain purchases from the 2025 autumn harvest have exceeded 338 million tons as of the end of April, according to the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. These purchases include 103 million tons of mid and late-season rice, 222 million tons of corn, and… Continue reading Grain purchases; protein prices; futures recap

The Renminbi continued to strengthen this week, hitting 6.80 to the US Dollar, the highest since March 2023. Corn prices continued to fall today on the discussion of sales of reserve rice. The decline has seen a fall in open interest as longs closed out positions. Urea futures also continued to fall. Prices had rallied… Continue reading Futures Recap

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Corn futures were down sharply on Wednesday as trading resumed following the May Day holiday in China. The decline in corn futures was due to a rumor in the market that Sinograin would auction 17 million tons of old rice at very low prices to supplement feed grain supplies. This has been rumored for several… Continue reading Futures Recap