Category: Commentary

Production Maps With the USDA removing its production maps, I’ve updated some for corn, soybeans, and wheat. These are for 2024 as the National Bureau of Statistics has not released the province-level crop data yet. Corn production is primarily centered in the northeast and Inner Mongolia, but there is also sizeable production in northern China… Continue reading Production maps; futures recap

Protein Price Update Most prices were higher this week, with eggs up 2.4% and now up 8.9% year on year. Egg prices are close to going above 10 yuan per KG, and haven’t been at this level since February 2025. Historical data and charts at https://sitoniaconsulting.com/protein-price-update/ Spread Update The inverse in Dalian Sept/Jan corn is… Continue reading Protein price; spread update; futures recap

Shuanghui subsidiary pork exceeded antibiotic levels by 37x Heilongjiang’s market supervision regulator reported that some pork products from Wangkui Shuanghui Beidahuang Food exceeded standards for residual antibiotics by 37.5x. Following the news, the company’s stock price fell by 5% on Tuesday before recovering slightly and rising by 0.65% on Wednesday. The company is 75% owned… Continue reading Pork testing; futures recap

Rice auction results In the national auctions of minimum-price reserve rice on Tuesday, 601k tons were listed, with 50.4k tons purchased by the market. The average price was down slightly to 2606 yuan per ton. Jilin stockpiling official expelled over corruption charges Sun Haoming, the former deputy director of the Jilin Province Grain and Materials… Continue reading Rice auctions; corruption investigation; futures recap

Price Update Futures Recap

Henan cash prices Spread update The May 2027 contracts were recently listed. The Jan 27/May 27 corn spread has started trading at a relatively normal carry compared to previous years. Despite the decline in flat price corn, the Sept/Jan corn spread is still at a relatively steady inverse. However, it’s a relatively small inverse compared… Continue reading Cash prices; spread update; futures recap

Ministry of Commerce mentions progress on agriculture, but not specific purchases The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference addressing questions related to the recent US-China meetings. They said that agricultural products can fill structural supply and demand gaps in the Chinese market, that the Chinese market provides a large opportunity to US farmers, and… Continue reading MOFCOM comments; protein prices; futures prices

Brazil soy shipments to China tracking last year’s pace Brazilian soybean shipments to China increased last week to 2.9 million tons. Exports from Argentina have also increased, with 326k tons. US shipments were relatively small with no exports out of the US Gulf. Based on lineup data from Brazil, there have been 36.5 million tons… Continue reading Soy shipments; rice auctions; futures recap

Consumer spending growth at multi-year low in April Consumer spending rose just 0.2% in April, the lowest growth since December 2022. December 2022 was when China lifted its zero-Covid policies, so this is the weakest growth post-Covid for Chinese consumer spending. This is below forecasts for growth of around 2.0% and is down from growth… Continue reading Weak consumer spending; weather risks; futures recap