Category: Analysis

With Trump in Beijing, there is going to a lot of focus on potential Chinese commitments to purchase US agricultural products. For context, the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement was signed in January 2020, and China was going to buy at least $40b in US agriculture products. This didn’t happen and was never going to happen.… Continue reading Soybean purchases already downplayed in US-China meetings

Two recent articles in China show the challenges of agricultural inspections and the different paths the government is taking. Hubei province recently launched its 2026 inspections of the province’s grain and edible oil stockpiles. The province announced that some aspects of the inspections would be exempted this year due to the help of ‘big data’,… Continue reading Anti-corruption efforts in Chinese ag take different approaches

600k tons of rice purchased for the minimum price support reserves were auctioned on May 12, with only 15k tons being purchased. The average price fell to 2601 yuan per ton. There hasn’t been much new talk in the market about the rumored auctions of old rice to feed mills which sent corn lower last… Continue reading Auctions of minimum price rice continue to see weak results

Barley – USDA increased 25/26 imports by 500k tons to 11.5 million tons and increased feed consumption by 500k tons. The initial projection for 26/27 is 10.5 million tons. Corn – Import estimates for 25/26 were cut by 2 million tons to 6 million tons, matching the Ministry of Agriculture estimates. For 26/27 the production… Continue reading USDA & Ag Min soybean estimates diverge by 18.5 million tons for 26/27

Corn The increase in corn for feed demand was very large, and while the Ministry of Agriculture attributes that to higher feed demand, there was also an increasing gap between what the USDA was estimating for corn feed compared to the Ministry of Agriculture. From 2016/17 to 2023/24, the USDA has increased corn feed demand… Continue reading CASDE analysis – Tighter corn balance sheet

Corn feed demand was hiked by 17.4 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the latest estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture. The ministry attributed this to a significant increase in demand for livestock and poultry feed. At the same time, the ministry also cut industrial corn use for 2025/26 by 3.5 million… Continue reading Ag Min hikes soy imports and corn feed demand in May estimates

Feed output in March was 29.74 million tons, up 26.0% compared to February, and up 10.2% year on year, according to the China Feed Industry Association. Output of compound feed rose by 9.6%, concentrated feed rose by 23.9%, and premixed feed rose by 11.2%. Corn inclusions in feed were 42.9%, down from 46.9% in January… Continue reading Feed output surges 10.2% y/y in March

Temperatures were mixed over the past 10 days, with southern China being colder than usual, while areas of the northeast and northwest were warmer than usual. Rainfall continued in southern China but was lighter, and areas of the north and northeast saw 10-50mm of rainfall. The National Meteorological Center notes that on May 6-7, areas… Continue reading Weather forecasters warns of high temps and lodging risk for northern wheat

Soybean imports in April were 8.48 million tons, up 111% compared to March, and up 39% year on year. Marketing year-to-date imports are now 50.68 million tons, up 9.3% year on year. Based on US and Brazilian shipments, I had estimated April at 8.7 million tons. For May, this should be around 12.2 million tons… Continue reading Customs reports strong April soy imports at 8.5 million tons

Consumer prices in China rose 1.2% year on year, higher than expectations of 0.9%. Starting in 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics re-weighted the index to include dining out in this category and reduced the weighting of grocery prices. This category has the highest weight in the index at 29.5%. In addition to falling pork… Continue reading CPI exceeds estimates despite large drop in pork prices