Category: Analysis

August railway passenger volumes were 521 million, up 3.1% year on year. January through August were 3.3 billion passengers, up 3.9% year on year. Passenger-kilometers was up by 1.2% year on year, indicating the growth is from shorter trips.   The National Railway Administration noted that during the summer travel season from July 1 through… Continue reading Rail passenger volumes up in August, but freight falls

More local governments in Heilongjiang are reporting subsidy data showing a switch from soybeans to corn. Beilin District in Suihua Prefecture reports subsidized corn at 115.5k hectares, up 8.4% year on year. Subsidized soybean area was 5.6k hectares, down 60.3% year on year. This data is interesting because it provides farmer-level subsidy data across two… Continue reading Soy down, corn up, and rice steady in Heilongjiang district

Proteins Meat imports in August were 450k tons and continued to slow compared to July and year on year. Beef imports fell 4.5% compared to July and 18.9% year on year. YTD imports are still up 8.0% on front-loading of shipments due to the 2026 import quotas. Pork imports are also continuing at a low… Continue reading Protein weakness, grain strength continues in August import data

A farmer in Heilongjiang received a higher government payment for planting soybeans this year. His 19-foot by 19-foot field of soybeans earned him a subsidy payment of 19.42 yuan, or $2.90 USD, according to newly released subsidy data from Sunwu County in Heihe Prefecture. Despite the higher payments this year, farmers switched more planting to… Continue reading What subsidy data tells us about corn and soybean planting before the official data

The rise in cattle and beef prices was the subject of a recent news report on CCTV Finance. Vendors at Beijing’s Xinfadi wholesale market note a trend of both rising prices and rising demand. Prices of beef shank at the market are up 7.0% over the past month, and up 18.8% year on year. One… Continue reading Cattle farmers report a return to profitability after long period of losses

Wheat prices were slightly lower in Hubei province last week, but Henan and Anhui have been announcing dozens of new warehouses that will purchase wheat at the government’s minimum reserve price over the past two weeks. Henan reports purchases of 883k tons at the minimum price, compared to 7.4 million tons at this time last… Continue reading Arrival of new crop corn pressures wheat prices with 2 weeks remaining of government support

The decline in corn starch futures has outpaced the decline in corn futures. The premium of starch futures to corn is now below 250 yuan per ton. Corn starch inventories are 1.36 million tons, up 10.8% year on year. Downstream demand is weak, with starch being used in food, beverages, and paper manufacturing. Industrial corn… Continue reading Corn processors face margin squeeze as starch prices fall

As harvest approaches, the Dalian corn curve remains in a large carry. Last year at this time, there was a slight inverse between November and January. January/May 2027 is trading at a carry of 84 yuan per ton, the lowest seasonally since 2019. Domestic soybeans are also trading at a relatively wide carry despite the… Continue reading Spread update: Corn spreads at wide carry into harvest; meal inverse strengthens

Brazilian soybean shipments to China fell to 1.3 million tons last week. In 2026, shipments are 71.3 million tons, up 2.7% year on year, based on lineup data. Shipments from the US Gulf resumed, with 328k tons shipped to China. Prior to this, the last soybean shipment from the Gulf to China was July 31.… Continue reading Brazil soybean shipments fall, US shipments to China return