Category: Analysis

Forage yields were mixed in September due to very significant differences in weather across China’s grasslands. Most grassland areas saw temperatures that were 1-2°C higher than normal, which was positive for late-stage growth of pasture before winter. Rainfall amounts varied, with most of Tibet, Gansu, and Qinghai seeing favorable rains, but rainfall was lacking in… Continue reading Forage yields steady but face wide variation due to uneven rainfall

Sinograin announced the next round of auctions for imported soybeans, with 518k tons being auctioned on October 13. The soybeans are from 2023 through 2025, and the auctions include locations across the country. Since July, Sinograin has auctioned 3.3 million tons of soybeans, with 2.1 million tons purchased by the market.

Summary The market still remains oversupplied even with the seasonal increases in demand going into the winter and around major holidays. Increases in efficiency by large firms have offset some of the reduction in the hog herd, with the government likely needing to further cut the breeding sow target. Policy At the end of September,… Continue reading Hog Update Text – October 2026

Grain companies in Henan purchased 20.1 million tons of wheat during the 2026 season. Of this amount, 18.6 million tons were made through market purchases, while 1.5 million tons were purchased through the government’s minimum price reserve program. The government’s minimum price purchases ended on September 30. Through this date, the total purchases both at… Continue reading Wheat purchases at minimum prices down sharply compared to 2025

The autumn harvest is over 40% complete as of October 8. The southwest is over 70% complete, the northwest is nearly 50%, the Yangtze River Delta and the north are both over 50% complete, the northeast is over 25%, and south is over 20% complete. Weather forecasts remain positive for harvest. From October 9-10 there… Continue reading Harvest progress over 40% complete; weather outlook clear

A recent piece from Agricultural Materials Guide, a newspaper covering farm inputs, provided some more insights into planting and fertilizer purchase decisions for farmers across China. In Hebei, a distributor notes that the prices of fertilizer used for winter wheat are up about 13% year on year. Farmers are waiting to see the results of… Continue reading Farmers focus on input cost control following declines in grain prices

Brazilian beef exports to China were sharply lower in September as the 55% tariff went into effect after Brazil reached its quota. In the first three quarters of 2026, China accounted for 48% of Brazilian beef exports, down from a peak of 66% for the same period in 2022 and 2023. Pork exports remain weak,… Continue reading Brazil DDGS and sorghum exports set new records in September

Summary Wheat prices were under pressure over the past month. The arrival of new crop corn has widened the price spread between wheat and corn, leading feed mills to sharply reduce wheat in feed. Planting is beginning, with current weather outlooks generally favorable, with temperatures near or above average, and forecasts for average precipitation. Prices… Continue reading Wheat Update – October 2026 (Text)