Category: Analysis

Retail sales grew by just 0.4% year on year in August, down from growth of 0.6% in July, and below analyst estimates of 0.8% growth. The National Bureau of Statistics reports that from January through August, spending on retail goods and services is up 2.5%, with spending on services rising 4.9% year on year, while… Continue reading Retail spending slows in August, restaurant spending mixed on consumer shifts

Initial data from Heilongjiang indicates the province has increased soybean planting subsidies for 2026. Heilongjiang has a province-wide planting subsidy compared to other provinces that decide it by region. Xinlin district in Heilongjiang published its subsidy payments to farms, showing a planting subsidy of 388.34 yuan per mu (5825 yuan per hectare or $868 USD/ha… Continue reading Heilongjiang soybean subsidies increase to $868 USD/ha

Based on price monitoring by the National Bureau of Statistics, soybean meal prices are up 3.7% compared to its last assessment in late August, and up 8.6% year on year. Hog prices were up 0.9% from late August, but still down 19.7% year on year. Crop inputs were mixed. Urea prices were up slightly, and… Continue reading NBS price update has oilseed and hog prices rising

This week’s report from Heilongjiang’s grain bureau notes concerns of test weights and quality for corn due to previous rainfall. Corn Soybeans

Temperatures in agricultural areas were generally normal or lower than average over the past week, except for the southwest and parts of Xinjiang. The northeast saw generally normal temperatures, with Heilongjiang continuing to see some light rainfall. Heilongjiang saw rainfall ranging from 10-50mm (0.4-2.0 inches) and excessive soil moisture continues in large parts of the… Continue reading Rains risk damage in Gansu and Shaanxi corn; conditions in northeast stable

Grains Barley – 2025/26 barley imports were kept unchanged at 13.5 million tons which would require imports of 880k tons in August and September to reach. 2026/27 imports were increased from 11.2 million tons to 13 million tons. Feed consumption was also adjusted higher by 1.8 million tons to 11.2 million tons. Corn – There… Continue reading USDA increases China barley import forecasts, cuts sorghum

Henan’s grain bureau reports that wheat bran prices were down substantially in August. Prices fell from 1,595 yuan per ton at the start of the month to 1,440 yuan per ton in mid-August before recovering slightly at the end of the month. The sharp decline was attributed to widespread substitution of low-quality wheat, losses in… Continue reading Flour milling losses narrow in August

Corn – CASDE cut imports for 2025/26 by 1 million tons to 5 million tons but kept balance sheets unchanged for 2026/27. In its comments, the ministry said that in August, major producing areas experienced suitable levels of sunlight and soil moisture, resulting in normal or slightly better growth of corn. In comparison, the Henan… Continue reading MARA lowers corn imports, raises soybean imports in September report

Production of forage grass was estimated to be higher by 0.6% year on year, but with large regional differences in production. Production in central Tibet and western Sichuan was estimated at 20-50% higher due to good rains. But production in central Inner Mongolia and western Gansu had drought conditions, which lowered production by over 50%.… Continue reading Forage production mixed due to uneven rains and high temperatures