Category: Analysis

Summary Prices have recovered slightly, but margins are still negative for large hog producers. Demand is increasing seasonally, but large supplies of pork continue to keep prices low. Reductions in sows have led to a reduction in piglets, but the market remains oversupplied. Policy There haven’t been any new policy developments over the past month.… Continue reading Hog Update – 2026-09-10

Reuters reported that COFCO bought around 1 million tons of US soybeans ahead of the US-China meetings this month. As noted in the July 30 soybean report: Despite weaker demand, China has a strong incentive to purchase 25 million tons of US soybeans that are part of the trade agreement. This helps to diversify China’s… Continue reading China purchases of US soybeans continue

In August, Brazil exported a combined 694k tons of corn, sorghum, and DDGS to China. Exports of frozen beef were 16k tons, down 90% from June, and down 90% year on year as Brazil has filled its quota of China’s beef imports. Year-to-date exports of pork to China are down 27% year on year, and… Continue reading Brazil August exports to China show strong feed shipments

In August, Muyuan reported sales of 7.0 million hogs, up 0.4% year on year, with YTD sales up 1.1%. The company’s average selling price was 10.30 yuan per KG, down from 10.64 in July, and down 24% year on year. The company reported its cost of production in July was 11.5 yuan per KG. This… Continue reading Hog sales mixed in August as prices declined

Consumer prices rose 0.8% year on year in August, up from 0.5% in July. Prices in the food, alcohol, tobacco, and dining out category declined by 0.7% year on year, contributing a decline of 0.21 percentage points to the index. The meat category was down 5.1% year on year, contributing a decline of 0.21 percentage… Continue reading Inflation increases slightly in August, but pork price declines continue to weigh

This week’s auctions of imported soybeans saw no purchases again. 68k tons were listed in Sichuan and Guanxi, with soybeans from 2022 through 2025. The floor price for 2022 soybeans was 4,320 yuan per ton and 4,390 yuan per ton for 2025 soybeans. This is the second week with a small volume listed in Sichuan… Continue reading Imported soybean auctions fail for second week.

 “You want to sell soybeans, actually you have to generally sell to the state oilseed monopoly. You’re not selling to an individual soybean crusher.” This was a recent line in a Erza Klein interview with Brad Setser from the US Council on Foreign Relations, which is titled “The Next China Shock Is Here”. The role… Continue reading Who actually buys China’s soybeans (and why this changed in 2026)