April customs data shows decline in corn imports, rise in wheat

Meat imports were mixed in April, with strong imports of pork, mutton, and aquaculture products, but pork and mutton imports down substantially year on year. Poultry imports also continue to be small, down 35.5% year on year. Wheat imports were strong and are up 130% year on year. Barley imports were also strong at 1.4… Continue reading April customs data shows decline in corn imports, rise in wheat

US announces $17b in yearly ag purchases by China

Following the meetings between the US and China, the US announced that China would buy $17b of US agricultural products annually, and this would be in addition to the previously agreed soybean purchase. China’s Ministry of Commerce said both countries would work to reduce non-tariff barriers to trade and market access issues. On more specific… Continue reading US announces $17b in yearly ag purchases by China

Ag Min lowers breeding sow target under new regulations

The Ministry of Agriculture published updated policy guidance that sets the target for the country’s breeding sow herd at 37.5 million. When this policy was first introduced, the target was 41 million. This was then revised lower to 39 million in 2024. In recent months, there has been some confusion about the target. Business publications… Continue reading Ag Min lowers breeding sow target under new regulations

Futures Recap

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Soybean purchases already downplayed in US-China meetings

With Trump in Beijing, there is going to a lot of focus on potential Chinese commitments to purchase US agricultural products. For context, the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement was signed in January 2020, and China was going to buy at least $40b in US agriculture products. This didn’t happen and was never going to happen.… Continue reading Soybean purchases already downplayed in US-China meetings

Corn auctions; futures recap

Sinograin reports corn large purchases in shortened week From May 6-9 (shortened week due to the May Day holiday), Sinograin had 8 auctions for corn, listing 78.9k tons. Only 15.4k tons were purchased. There were 14 rounds of purchases with a volume of 518k tons, and Sinograin purchased 506k tons, or 97.7%. Rotation auctions were… Continue reading Corn auctions; futures recap

Anti-corruption efforts in Chinese ag take different approaches

Two recent articles in China show the challenges of agricultural inspections and the different paths the government is taking. Hubei province recently launched its 2026 inspections of the province’s grain and edible oil stockpiles. The province announced that some aspects of the inspections would be exempted this year due to the help of ‘big data’,… Continue reading Anti-corruption efforts in Chinese ag take different approaches

Auctions of minimum price rice continue to see weak results

600k tons of rice purchased for the minimum price support reserves were auctioned on May 12, with only 15k tons being purchased. The average price fell to 2601 yuan per ton. There hasn’t been much new talk in the market about the rumored auctions of old rice to feed mills which sent corn lower last… Continue reading Auctions of minimum price rice continue to see weak results

USDA & Ag Min soybean estimates diverge by 18.5 million tons for 26/27

Barley – USDA increased 25/26 imports by 500k tons to 11.5 million tons and increased feed consumption by 500k tons. The initial projection for 26/27 is 10.5 million tons. Corn – Import estimates for 25/26 were cut by 2 million tons to 6 million tons, matching the Ministry of Agriculture estimates. For 26/27 the production… Continue reading USDA & Ag Min soybean estimates diverge by 18.5 million tons for 26/27

Planting progress; wheat harvest; futures recap

Spring planting over half complete Planting of spring crops is over 50% complete as of May 11, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. This is slightly faster than last year’s pace. Planting completion by crop is 70% for corn, 20% for soybeans, and 20% for mid-season rice. Wheat prices flat as early harvest starts Wheat… Continue reading Planting progress; wheat harvest; futures recap