Category: Research

Brazil is expected to ship its first bulk cargo of DDGS to China this week, with another 52k tons in the lineup for March. The start of Brazilian shipments could mark the start of larger Chinese DDGS imports after relatively small volumes in recent years. The US previously exported large volumes of DDGS to China,… Continue reading DDGS imports to expand as Brazil begins exports to China

China’s breeding sow herd was 39.61 million head at the end of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This is down 2.9% year on year and is 101.6% of the normal inventory level. The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Bureau of Statistics did not release a monthly sow inventory number in November,… Continue reading Breeding sow herd down 2.9% y/y

With imports of grandparent breeding stock into China currently being disrupted due to avian flu outbreaks in France, it’s a good opportunity to look at the trends and players in the Chinese poultry market. In its China Poultry Annual, the USDA FAS projects 2026 chicken meat production to rise slightly due to large vertically integrated… Continue reading Poultry expansion continues and a look at companies in the industry

National average wholesale tomato prices hit 9.02 yuan per KG at the beginning of January, according to market monitoring from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. This is the highest on record, going back at least 10 years. Prices are up 80% year on year, and up 120% since the beginning of August. According to the… Continue reading What skyrocketing tomato prices tell us about corn

Much of China’s winter wheat production was planted later than normal due to heavy rains which interfered with field work. Planting was delayed by around 20 days in Henan province, which alone accounts for 26% of national production. Delays were also seen in neighboring provinces of Shandong and Anhui, which account for 20% and 13%… Continue reading Estimating the yield loss for China’s very delayed wheat crop

Yesterday, 25 large companies met with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture in Beijing to discuss plans to reduce the size of the country’s hog industry. The government reiterated that the sow population needs to be reduced by 1 million. The sow population has been relatively stable in recent months… Continue reading Beijing gets serious about reducing the hog herd

Wheat feeding is increasing as wheat and corn are near parity in some markets. In its 2025/26 June WASDE report, the USDA is projecting China’s feed use for wheat unchanged from 2024/25 at 33 million tons. Plotted below is the price spread between wheat and corn compared to each marketing year’s estimate for wheat feeding.… Continue reading Will feed use of wheat be higher in 2025/26?

Urea prices continue to fall with Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange futures trading into new multi-year lows on Tuesday and down 22% year on year, the most of any agricultural-related commodity tracked in the Futures Recap table. Cash prices also continue lower with most markets now below 1600 yuan per ton. Production remains relatively high with last… Continue reading Fertilizer industry struggles with oversupply as Customs tightens export controls