Last week saw the first shipments of sorghum to China in a new trade flow that could disrupt previous export patterns. China is the largest importer of sorghum, forecast at 6.6 million tons for 2026/27. This is over 20x the volume of the next largest importer, Mexico, forecast at 300k tons. The US remains the… Continue reading Brazil starts first shipments of sorghum to China with risk of disrupting US trade
Category: Research
Prices for Australian beef rise as tariffs take effect
Prices for Australian beef are already rising in China after imports hit the quota limit and a 55% tariff went into effect as of June 20. At retailer Sam’s Club, some Australian beef products have seen prices increase by 32-36%, with certain products also limited to two per customer or being shown as only available… Continue reading Prices for Australian beef rise as tariffs take effect
China announces 73.5% tariff on Canadian pea starch
Following an investigation first announced in August 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce determined that Canadian pea starch was being dumped into China and announced an anti-dumping tariff of 73.5% which goes into effect on July 1. Peas, along with pea starch and protein, have seen a large amount of tariffs and trade restrictions in recent… Continue reading China announces 73.5% tariff on Canadian pea starch
Piglet prices plunge to lowest in over 7 years as capacity controls bite
The national average price of piglets in China fell to its lowest levels since at least February 2019 as the government’s efforts to control capacity become stricter and farmers are cautious about restocking amid continually low hog prices. Piglet prices last week were 22.29 yuan per KG, down 2.7% compared to the week before, and… Continue reading Piglet prices plunge to lowest in over 7 years as capacity controls bite
Beef imports from Australia approach quota limit, risking 55% tariff
The Ministry of Commerce announced that as of June 1, beef imports from Australia have reached 90% of the quantity allowed for Australia under the quota scheme implemented in 2025. After imports reach 100%, beef imports from Australia will face an additional 55% tariff. The quotas scheme was introduced in late 2025 as a measure… Continue reading Beef imports from Australia approach quota limit, risking 55% tariff
Ag Min lowers breeding sow target under new regulations
The Ministry of Agriculture published updated policy guidance that sets the target for the country’s breeding sow herd at 37.5 million. When this policy was first introduced, the target was 41 million. This was then revised lower to 39 million in 2024. In recent months, there has been some confusion about the target. Business publications… Continue reading Ag Min lowers breeding sow target under new regulations
Argentina largest wheat supplier to China in March as trade starts
Barley imports continued to be strong in March with nearly all of this volume coming from Australia. Compared to Q1 2025, Australia has an even larger market share of barley imports at 82%. The pace of imports has also been strong to start this year, with a total of 3.5 million tons imported, one of… Continue reading Argentina largest wheat supplier to China in March as trade starts
Why does China want to reduce overcapacity in the hog industry anyway?
I was talking to a journalist yesterday about the situation in China’s hog market for a story they were writing. At one point, they asked why China even cares about overcapacity in the hog industry? These hog companies expand too much, some go out of business, and in the meantime, consumers get really cheap pork.… Continue reading Why does China want to reduce overcapacity in the hog industry anyway?
DDGS imports to expand as Brazil begins exports to China
Brazil is expected to ship its first bulk cargo of DDGS to China this week, with another 52k tons in the lineup for March. The start of Brazilian shipments could mark the start of larger Chinese DDGS imports after relatively small volumes in recent years. The US previously exported large volumes of DDGS to China,… Continue reading DDGS imports to expand as Brazil begins exports to China
Breeding sow herd down 2.9% y/y
China’s breeding sow herd was 39.61 million head at the end of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This is down 2.9% year on year and is 101.6% of the normal inventory level. The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Bureau of Statistics did not release a monthly sow inventory number in November,… Continue reading Breeding sow herd down 2.9% y/y