Category: Research

The Ministry of Agriculture published updated policy guidance that sets the target for the country’s breeding sow herd at 37.5 million. When this policy was first introduced, the target was 41 million. This was then revised lower to 39 million in 2024. In recent months, there has been some confusion about the target. Business publications… Continue reading Ag Min lowers breeding sow target under new regulations

Barley imports continued to be strong in March with nearly all of this volume coming from Australia. Compared to Q1 2025, Australia has an even larger market share of barley imports at 82%. The pace of imports has also been strong to start this year, with a total of 3.5 million tons imported, one of… Continue reading Argentina largest wheat supplier to China in March as trade starts

I was talking to a journalist yesterday about the situation in China’s hog market for a story they were writing. At one point, they asked why China even cares about overcapacity in the hog industry? These hog companies expand too much, some go out of business, and in the meantime, consumers get really cheap pork.… Continue reading Why does China want to reduce overcapacity in the hog industry anyway?

Brazil is expected to ship its first bulk cargo of DDGS to China this week, with another 52k tons in the lineup for March. The start of Brazilian shipments could mark the start of larger Chinese DDGS imports after relatively small volumes in recent years. The US previously exported large volumes of DDGS to China,… Continue reading DDGS imports to expand as Brazil begins exports to China

China’s breeding sow herd was 39.61 million head at the end of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This is down 2.9% year on year and is 101.6% of the normal inventory level. The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Bureau of Statistics did not release a monthly sow inventory number in November,… Continue reading Breeding sow herd down 2.9% y/y

With imports of grandparent breeding stock into China currently being disrupted due to avian flu outbreaks in France, it’s a good opportunity to look at the trends and players in the Chinese poultry market. In its China Poultry Annual, the USDA FAS projects 2026 chicken meat production to rise slightly due to large vertically integrated… Continue reading Poultry expansion continues and a look at companies in the industry

National average wholesale tomato prices hit 9.02 yuan per KG at the beginning of January, according to market monitoring from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. This is the highest on record, going back at least 10 years. Prices are up 80% year on year, and up 120% since the beginning of August. According to the… Continue reading What skyrocketing tomato prices tell us about corn

Much of China’s winter wheat production was planted later than normal due to heavy rains which interfered with field work. Planting was delayed by around 20 days in Henan province, which alone accounts for 26% of national production. Delays were also seen in neighboring provinces of Shandong and Anhui, which account for 20% and 13%… Continue reading Estimating the yield loss for China’s very delayed wheat crop

Yesterday, 25 large companies met with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture in Beijing to discuss plans to reduce the size of the country’s hog industry. The government reiterated that the sow population needs to be reduced by 1 million. The sow population has been relatively stable in recent months… Continue reading Beijing gets serious about reducing the hog herd

Wheat feeding is increasing as wheat and corn are near parity in some markets. In its 2025/26 June WASDE report, the USDA is projecting China’s feed use for wheat unchanged from 2024/25 at 33 million tons. Plotted below is the price spread between wheat and corn compared to each marketing year’s estimate for wheat feeding.… Continue reading Will feed use of wheat be higher in 2025/26?